Hawkeye

Level 1 · Earth

Earth SWOT

The whole planet — its natural systems and its people — through four lenses, in the order the research started: Threats, Opportunities, Weaknesses, Strengths.

Threats

External · harmful

Source playlist: Global Threats playlist

A long-running measure of how close humanity is to global catastrophe is the Doomsday Clock, set each year by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. In January 2026 it was set at 85 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 27 January 2026).

Nuclear war

Imagine a room awash in gasoline, and there are two implacable enemies in that room. One of them has nine thousand matches. The other has seven thousand matches. … What is necessary is to reduce the matches and to clean up the gasoline.

— Carl Sagan, ABC News Viewpoint, 20 November 1983 (transcript)

A widely shared shorter version (“two sworn enemies standing waist deep in gasoline, one with three matches, the other with five”) is a later paraphrase, not Sagan’s words.

  • About 12,200 warheads in nine states. The United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel together held an estimated 12,187 nuclear weapons in January 2026. Of these, 9,745 were in military stockpiles and about 4,012 were deployed with operational forces (SIPRI Yearbook 2026, data for January 2026).
  • Two arsenals dominate, and stockpiles may soon grow. The United States and Russia hold almost 86% of all warheads. The world total is still falling only because both are dismantling retired warheads. SIPRI expects new warheads entering stockpiles to outpace dismantlement soon, and estimates that China’s arsenal grew from 600 to up to 620 warheads during 2025 (SIPRI Yearbook 2026).
  • Arms control has eroded. SIPRI reports that the strategic nuclear arms control framework has collapsed and the non-proliferation regime is under stress, while nuclear-armed states have become more secretive about their arsenals (SIPRI Yearbook 2026 summary, 2026).
  • More wars between states. Armed conflict took place in 49 states in 2025. The number of interstate conflicts doubled from three in 2024 to six in 2025, and four of the six involved a nuclear-armed state, including the fighting between India and Pakistan in May 2025 (SIPRI Yearbook 2026 summary, data for 2025).
  • Record military spending. World military expenditure rose for the 11th year in a row, to US$2,887 billion in 2025, or 2.5% of world GDP. This is the highest level SIPRI has recorded (SIPRI Yearbook 2026 summary, data for 2025).

Talk: I’ve studied nuclear war for 35 years -- you should be worried | Brian Toon | TEDxMileHigh (November 2017)

If you live in a city that has a military base, there’s a missile that’s aimed at you right now. If you live in a city that has an important industry, a major university, a large airport, an oil refinery or oil storage facilities, there’s a hydrogen bomb that’s aimed at you right now. We live in a perilous era.

There are 15,000 nuclear weapons on the planet. And the 9 nuclear weapon states are in conflict with each other. The United States and North Korea, NATO and Russia, India and Pakistan. We’re just one misunderstanding, one mistake, or one fanatic politician away from a nuclear conflict. In World War II, fleets of hundreds or even a thousand airplanes were used to bomb a single city. But with the invention of the atomic bomb, only one airplane and one bomb was needed.

— Brian Toon, TEDxMileHigh

Current figure: The figure of 15,000 is as stated in the talk (November 2017). SIPRI estimates that nine states held about 12,187 nuclear weapons in January 2026 (SIPRI Yearbook 2026).

Top contributors

Share of world nuclear warhead inventory (Jan 2026)

Countries

  1. Russia44.5%
  2. United States41.4%
  3. China5.1%
  4. France3.0%

Continents

  1. Europe49.4%
  2. North America41.4%
  3. Asia9.3%

Total inventory (deployed, stored and retired warheads awaiting dismantlement), January 2026. All figures are SIPRI estimates. Top 5 countries and top 3 continents with at least 3% of the world total. Source: SIPRI Yearbook 2026.

Share of world military expenditure (2025)

Countries

  1. United States33.1%
  2. China11.6%
  3. Russia6.6%
  4. Germany3.9%
  5. India3.2%

Continents

  1. North America34.9%
  2. Europe29.6%
  3. Asia29.1%

2025, current US dollars. Shares are of SIPRI’s world total (US$2,887 billion), which includes estimates for countries without data; continent totals add up countries with data only. Top 5 countries and top 3 continents with at least 3% of the world total. Source: SIPRI Military Expenditure Database.

Global warming

Talk: Demystifying Three Climate Lies - The Road to Decarbonisation | Thomas Stocker | TEDxBern (2016)

Top contributors

Share of world fossil CO2 emissions (2024)

Countries

  1. China31.8%
  2. United States12.7%
  3. India8.3%
  4. Russia4.6%

Continents

  1. Asia60.6%
  2. North America15.8%
  3. Europe12.6%

Territorial fossil CO2 including cement, 2024. Shares are of the world total, which also includes international aviation and shipping not assigned to any country. China excludes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, which the source lists separately. Top 5 countries and top 3 continents with at least 3% of the world total. Source: Global Carbon Budget 2025 national data.

Share of cumulative fossil CO2 emissions since 1850 (1850-2024)

Countries

  1. United States23.6%
  2. China15.5%
  3. Russia6.7%
  4. Germany5.1%
  5. United Kingdom4.1%

Continents

  1. Asia33.9%
  2. Europe29.7%
  3. North America27.1%

Sum of territorial fossil CO2 from 1850 to 2024, using today’s borders (the source splits former states such as the Soviet Union by their 1992 shares). Top 5 countries and top 3 continents with at least 3% of the world total. Source: Global Carbon Budget 2025 national data.

Fossil CO2 emissions per person, in tonnes (2024)

Countries

  1. China8.7 t
  2. United States14.2 t
  3. India2.2 t
  4. Russia12.3 t
  5. Germany6.8 t
  6. United Kingdom4.5 t
  7. World average4.7 t

Continents

  1. Asia4.9 t
  2. North America10.0 t
  3. Europe6.6 t

2024 emissions divided by population on 1 July 2024 (UN World Population Prospects 2024), shown for the countries and continents listed above, with the world average for comparison. Source: Global Carbon Budget 2025 national data.

Ocean warming and acidification

Talk: Ocean acidification - the evil twin of climate change | Triona McGrath | TEDxFulbrightDublin (2016)

Biodiversity loss

  • About a million species at risk. Around 1 million animal and plant species are threatened with extinction, many within decades, more than ever before in human history (IPBES Global Assessment, 2019).
  • Wildlife populations down 73% on average. Monitored vertebrate populations fell by an average of 73% between 1970 and 2020, and freshwater populations by 85%. The index measures the average change in population size, not the number of animals lost (WWF/ZSL Living Planet Report 2024).
  • Five main drivers. In order of global impact, the main direct drivers of nature loss are changes in land and sea use, direct exploitation of organisms, climate change, pollution, and invasive alien species (IPBES, 2019).
  • Seven of nine planetary boundaries crossed. In 2025 scientists assessed seven of the nine Earth-system boundaries as breached, including biosphere integrity, land-system change and freshwater use. Only stratospheric ozone and aerosol loading remain within safe limits (PIK Planetary Health Check 2025).

Depletion of natural resources

  • Extraction has tripled. Material resource use grew from 30 billion tonnes in 1970 to 106 billion tonnes. Without urgent action, extraction could rise by about 60% by 2060. Extracting and processing resources accounts for over 60% of planet-warming emissions and 40% of the health impacts of air pollution (UNEP Global Resources Outlook 2024).
  • Energy. Oil, natural gas and coal use all reached record highs in 2024, even as renewables set new deployment records for the 23rd year in a row. Around 730 million people still live without electricity (IEA World Energy Outlook 2025).
  • Critical minerals. A single country is the dominant refiner for 19 of 20 energy-related strategic minerals, with an average market share of around 70%. As of November 2025, more than half of these minerals were subject to some form of export controls (IEA World Energy Outlook 2025).
  • Coral reef. In the fourth global coral bleaching event, bleaching-level heat stress reached about 84.4% of the world’s coral reef area between January 2023 and September 2025, with mass bleaching in at least 83 countries and territories. The previous record was 68.2%, in 2014–2017 (NOAA Coral Reef Watch, June 2026). Almost a third of reef-forming coral species are threatened with extinction (IPBES, 2019).

Talk: There’s a global sand crisis and no one is talking about it | Vince Beiser | TEDxPenn (2019)

Pandemics and drug resistance

  • COVID-19 cost about 22 million lives. Between 2020 and 2023, the pandemic was linked to an estimated 22.1 million excess deaths, including indirect deaths. That is more than three times the officially reported COVID-19 deaths, and it reversed a decade of gains in life expectancy (WHO, World health statistics 2026).
  • Drug-resistant infections. Bacterial antimicrobial resistance was associated with more than 4.7 million deaths in 2021. About 1 in 6 laboratory-confirmed bacterial infections worldwide were resistant to antibiotics in 2023, and few new medicines are in development (WHO fact sheet).
  • A pandemic agreement, adopted in 2025. The World Health Assembly adopted the WHO Pandemic Agreement on 20 May 2025. It opens for signature only after a separate annex on sharing pathogens and their benefits is adopted, and it enters into force after 60 ratifications (WHO, May 2025).
  • Climate is shifting disease risk. Dengue is the world’s fastest-growing mosquito-borne disease. About half the world’s population is at risk, and reported cases are the highest ever recorded (WMO State of the Global Climate 2025, citing WHO).

Talk: Maryn McKenna: What do we do when antibiotics don’t work any more? (2015)

Economic shocks and debt

  • Steady but uneven growth. The IMF projects world growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. It notes that a war-related shock is weighing on energy importers and vulnerable economies, global disinflation has stalled, and downside risks from renewed conflict and financial-market repricing persist (IMF World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026).
  • Interest bills crowding out development. Developing countries’ public debt reached $35 trillion in 2025, and their net interest payments reached $995 billion (UNCTAD, A World of Debt 2026).
  • 3.7 billion people affected. In 51 developing countries, home to 3.7 billion people, governments spend more on interest payments than on either health or education. That is 1.2 billion more people than in 2010 (UNCTAD, A World of Debt 2026).

Forced displacement

  • One in 70 people. At the end of 2025, about 117.8 million people were forcibly displaced: refugees, asylum-seekers and people displaced inside their own country. UNHCR puts this at one in every 70 people, or 1.4% of the world’s population (UNHCR Global Trends, data for end-2025).
  • Most never leave their country. 68.7 million people were displaced inside their own country, and 41.6 million were refugees. Sudan remains the largest internal displacement crisis, with 9.1 million people displaced within the country (UNHCR Global Trends).
  • A fall, but often through forced returns. Refugee numbers fell by 3% and internal displacement by 7% during 2025, mostly because of returns to Afghanistan, Syria, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. UNHCR notes that many of these returns happened under adverse circumstances (UNHCR Global Trends).
  • Neighbours carry the load. 65% of refugees are hosted in neighbouring countries, and low- and middle-income countries host 68% of refugees and others in need of international protection (UNHCR Global Trends, end-2025).

Hunger and food insecurity

  • 645 million people hungry. An estimated 645 million people, 7.8% of the world’s population, faced hunger in 2025 (range 608–696 million). This was the third year in a row of gradual progress, but the number is still above the level recorded in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic (SOFI 2026, PDF p. 17, data for 2025).
  • Healthy diets out of reach. Almost 2.7 billion people were unable to afford a healthy diet in 2025 (SOFI 2026, PDF p. 53).
  • Short of the 2030 goal. Hunger is projected to keep falling, but between 510 and 520 million people may still be facing hunger in 2030, 56% of them in Africa (SOFI 2026, PDF p. 14).

Opportunities

External · helpful

Analysis in progress

The opportunities for Earth haven’t been written up yet. They will be drawn from the source playlist below and further research.

Source playlist: Global Opportunities playlist

Weaknesses

Internal · harmful

Analysis in progress

The weaknesses for Earth haven’t been written up yet. They will be drawn from the source playlist below and further research.

Source playlist: Global Weaknesses playlist

Strengths

Internal · helpful

Analysis in progress

The strengths for Earth haven’t been written up yet. They will be drawn from the source playlist below and further research.

Source playlist: Global Strengths playlist